Paradoxically, it is easier to construct a coherent story when you know little, when there are fewer pieces to fit into the puzzle. Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation; our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.”

Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking Fast and Slow” (2012)

Leaders who have been lucky are never punished for having taken too much risk. Instead they are believed to have had the flair and foresight to anticipate success and the sensible people who doubted them are seen in hindsight as mediocre, timid and weak. A few lucky gambles can crown a reckless leader with halo of prescience and boldness.”

Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking Fast and Slow” (2012)

Stories of how businesses rise and fall strike a chord with readers by offering what the human mind needs: a simple message of triumph and failure that identifies clear causes and ignores the determinative power of luck and the inevitability of regression. Those stories induce and maintain an illusion of understanding, imparting lessons of little enduring value to readers who are all too eager to believe them.”

- Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking Fast and Slow” (2012)

The idea that large historical events are determined by luck is profoundly shocking, although it is demonstrably true."

- Daniel Kahneman in "Thinking, Fast and Slow" (2012)

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future".

-Daniel Kahneman in "Thinking, Fast and Slow" (2012)

Optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward the truth tellers."

- Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking Fast and Slow” (2012)

A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.”

― Daniel Kahnemanin "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

A general “law of least effort” applies to cognitive as well as physical exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature.”

― Daniel Kahneman in "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.”

― Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow
"Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן‎) (born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology. With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors which arise from heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973; Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and developed prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his work in prospect theory."